GUWAHATI : A message circulating widely across Assam and other parts of the Northeast has raised concern by claiming that a powerful earthquake of around magnitude 8.5 could strike the region between late August and September.
The message has been linked online to statements attributed to Cotton University geology professor Dr Abhijit Bordoloi, who is reported to have discussed the possibility of an earthquake of around magnitude 8.5 affecting Assam and adjoining Himalayan regions in an interview with News18. However, the original interview could not be independently verified, and there is no scientific or official basis to present the claimed timeframe as a forecast.
The Ministry of Earth Sciences, Government of India, has consistently stated that there is currently no scientific method capable of predicting earthquakes in terms of exact time, location, and magnitude. The National Centre for Seismology is responsible for monitoring seismic activity and reporting earthquakes only after they occur.
The viral message appears to conflate general seismic risk with an unverified timeframe.
However, the underlying earthquake risk in the region, however, is well established. Assam falls under Seismic Zone V, the highest-risk category in India, and has historically experienced major earthquakes, notably in 1897 and 1950, both exceeding magnitude 8.
The 1897 earthquake caused extensive devastation, while the 1950 event, with its epicentre in present-day Arunachal Pradesh, remains one of the most powerful recorded in the region.
The Northeast continues to experience frequent low-intensity tremors. However, these do not provide reliable indicators of an impending major earthquake. Authorities have clarified that smaller seismic events cannot be considered foreshocks unless followed by a larger event.
Even though scientists can identify high-risk seismic zones and estimate potential maximum magnitudes, they are not able to determine the precise timing of earthquakes. Government agencies have also reiterated that early-warning systems can only provide alerts seconds after an earthquake begins, not advance predictions.
Accordingly, the emphasis remains on preparedness rather than prediction. Assam’s disaster management authorities have highlighted that rapid urbanisation, substandard construction practices, and high population density significantly increase vulnerability. Urban centres such as Guwahati are considered particularly at risk due to infrastructure stress and unplanned development.
The broader Northeast region, including Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Meghalaya, also lies within a highly active seismic belt.
The viral claim has gained traction largely because it references a genuine and well-recognised hazard. But, there is no scientific evidence supporting the assertion of a specific earthquake date.
Previous instances, including widely circulated predictions in 2006 that led to public panic, underscore the importance of treating such claims with caution.
The key takeaway is not a forecast but a well-established fact: Assam has experienced major earthquakes in the past and remains in a high-risk seismic zone.
Kept in mind. Science cannot determine when the next major earthquake will occur; it can only reinforce the importance of preparedness and resilience.
