New Delhi : India’s economic growth is expected to have slowed to 7.1% in the April-June quarter, from 7.8% in the previous three months, as private investment remains weak and higher oil prices add pressure.
The estimate comes from a poll of 58 economists ahead of the government’s quarterly GDP figures, which are due later this week.
Even at 7.1%, India would remain among the faster-growing major economies. Consumer spending and government expenditure have continued to support the economy. Goods and services exports have also remained strong, with economists estimating export growth of around 11% during the quarter.
Private investment is proving harder to sustain. Companies have increased spending in some areas, but economists expect businesses to remain cautious as global trade conditions remain uncertain and energy costs stay high.
Crude oil has become another concern.
Oil prices have remained around or above $90 a barrel. India imports more than 85% of the crude oil it consumes, leaving the economy exposed to a sustained rise in international prices. Higher crude costs raise the country’s import bill and can feed into transport and manufacturing costs. They can also put pressure on inflation.
The rupee has added to the pressure. The currency has fallen about 6% this year, making imported commodities more expensive.
Household spending, however, has held up. Tax reductions introduced last year have left consumers with more money to spend, while government expenditure continues to provide support to economic activity.
The expected April-June slowdown follows 7.8% growth in the January-March quarter. The economy grew 7.7% during the 2025-26 financial year. Economists expect growth to slow further in the July-September quarter, with the median forecast at around 6.6%. For the full financial year, the forecast is 6.7%.
Recent industrial figures have also been mixed. Output across India’s eight core infrastructure sectors increased 5.4% in July, helped by cement, coal, electricity and iron ore. Crude oil, fertiliser and natural gas production declined during the month.
The official GDP figures will provide the first full picture of how the economy performed during the April-June period.
